Brent crude is back near $100 a barrel as the US-Iran conflict intensifies, and Jonathan Barratt says the risk premium is genuine. He warns that without a resolution, $120-$130 crude could come back into play.
The supply backdrop is adding to the concern. Around 8-9 million barrels of supply are at risk, shipping activity is falling, strategic reserves are depleted and uncertainty surrounds OPEC+ supply. Together, those factors mean the oil market is facing a potentially bigger shock.
For India, the stakes are even higher. Expensive crude can pressure inflation, the trade deficit, the rupee and equity markets, making the path of Brent a key variable for the country's economic and financial outlook.
Barratt's outlook covers Brent, Iran, Hormuz and OPEC+, as well as what $120 oil could mean for Indian markets. The central question is whether the conflict moves toward a resolution or continues to feed the risk premium that has pushed crude back toward triple digits.