The artificial‑intelligence boom has reshaped Wall Street over the past four years, turning AI‑enabled software and autonomous decision‑making systems into a multitrillion‑dollar global opportunity that investors are eager to capture.
While most analysts remain bullish on the AI infrastructure build‑out, a minority are sounding alarms over two of the most widely held AI‑linked stocks – Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), which trades on speculative platforms under the ticker SPCX, and Palantir Technologies – which they say could see price drops of 48% and 54% respectively within the next twelve months.
Glenn Thum of Phillip Securities issued a sell rating on SpaceX and set a low‑water price target of $75 per share. Thum’s note focuses on the company’s AI‑driven operations, arguing that despite a prospectus‑estimated $28.5 trillion addressable AI market, the segment’s high spending and steep losses do not justify a valuation premium.
Thum also highlighted that SpaceX’s major compute contracts with Alphabet and Anthropic will expire in late 2029 and can be terminated by either party after this year with 90 days’ notice, adding uncertainty to the firm’s long‑term growth and profitability.
SpaceX’s share‑unlock schedule differs from typical IPO lock‑up rules; insiders are allowed to sell shares at several earnings‑linked events, which could increase the float and weigh on the stock through at least mid‑December.
The company’s financing structure also bears noting: 21 underwriters received shares in the offering, and buy ratings currently outnumber sell ratings, underscoring the mixed sentiment among investors.
Jefferies analyst Brent Thill raised his firm’s price target for Palantir from $70 to $80 in early August, but the stock closed at $172.56 on September 15, implying a 54% downside from that target.
Thill’s concerns centre on Palantir’s lofty price‑to‑sales (P/S) multiples. The company entered 2026 with a P/S ratio above 100 and now trades with a trailing twelve‑month P/S of 72, levels that Thill deems unsustainable even given Palantir’s strong government contracts through its Gotham platform.
Although Gotham’s multiyear contracts with the U.S. government and allies provide a steady revenue stream and have allowed CEO Alex Karp to raise full‑year sales guidance each quarter, analysts warn that the company’s stratospheric valuation makes it vulnerable in the event of an AI‑bubble correction.
The divergent analyst views underscore a broader market tension: while many investors chase the upside of AI‑driven growth, the high valuations and contract dependencies of firms like SpaceX and Palantir could trigger sharp sell‑offs if growth expectations falter.