According to the first exit poll, the hard‑right AfD topped the ballot in the north‑eastern state of Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern, winning roughly 37% of the vote, while the governing CDU suffered a significant defeat, prompting analysts to warn that Merz’s leadership could be on the brink.
The outcome follows a crushing AfD victory earlier this month in the neighbouring state of Saxony‑Anhalt, underscoring a rapid shift in voter sentiment that has left the chancellor’s approval rating at a historic low of about 10%.
Inside the CDU, frustration is mounting. Some party insiders blame the coalition partner Social Democratic Party (SPD) for slowing the economic reforms Merz promised after taking office last year, while others question his brusque, “tough‑guy” style that voters say has failed to curb the rise of the far‑right.
In the wake of the Saxony‑Anhalt results, Merz appeared unusually contrite, pledging to listen more closely to citizens and announcing a series of populist measures, including a cap on petrol prices, a softened stance on early retirement and a proposal to force online users to post under their real names.
Merz also cancelled a planned appearance at the United Nations General Assembly and convened a closed‑door meeting with senior CDU figures, warning that if they do not continue backing him he will demand they name a successor. The front‑runner is North Rhine‑Westphalia minister‑president Hendrik Wüst, though his own state election in April makes a swift transition contentious.
Eight state leaders, among them Wüst, have signed a letter of muted support for Merz, arguing that a strong and stable Germany is essential as Europe confronts a surge in populist parties. Nonetheless, any change in the chancellor’s seat would still require the SPD’s consent, a factor that could force a slowdown of the reforms Merz’s government has been pursuing.
The same day as the Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern vote, Berlin’s state election produced a 24.5% showing for the hard‑left Die Linke, a 20% share for the CDU and a 16% share for the AfD, further illustrating the fragmented political landscape that Merz must navigate.