Channel 12 and Channel 13 news outlets each projected Yashar to win 22 to 23 seats in the 120‑member Knesset, while Likud was shown trailing with 19 to 20 seats.
A separate poll published by the newspaper Maariv gave Yashar an even larger lead, forecasting 25 seats for the newcomer and 19 for Likud.
Yashar, whose name means “straight” in Hebrew, was founded just a year ago and has quickly become a significant contender, according to the same media reports.
Netanyahu’s Likud party, which has dominated Israeli politics for decades, now appears to be lagging behind the fresh entrant in the latest projections, though no poll has declared an outright winner.
Analysts note that Yashar’s strong showing could reshape coalition negotiations after the Oct. 27 vote, potentially challenging Netanyahu’s ability to form a governing majority.