The IPC report, a joint initiative of UN agencies, regional bodies and aid groups, said that 5% of the displaced population in Baidoa – roughly 26,000 individuals – are likely to experience starvation and a collapse of livelihoods during the October‑December period if conditions worsen.
The warning comes against a backdrop in which more than 5 million Somalis, representing 26% of the population examined, are already suffering crisis‑level food insecurity or worse due to repeated droughts, ongoing conflict and chronic aid shortfalls.
The IPC forecasts that the number of people facing food insecurity could rise to 5.4 million between October and December, while food aid is projected to reach only about 70,400 people per month – just 1.3% of those in need.
Children are expected to bear a heavy burden: an estimated 1.92 million children aged six months to five years will require treatment for acute malnutrition by June 2027, including 433,000 severe cases.
Somalia last endured a full‑scale famine in 2011, which claimed around 250,000 lives, and came close to famine conditions in 2017 and 2022, underscoring the fragility of the country’s food system.
Humanitarian officials say the looming famine could trigger further displacement, overwhelm health services and deepen the humanitarian crisis unless donor funding is dramatically increased and flood‑mitigation measures are implemented.