The study, which surveyed more than 10,000 adults as part of the institute’s annual cost‑of‑living analysis, defines middle‑income households as individuals earning between $31,300 and $62,600 annually for a single‑person household or between $53,300 and $106,600 for a family of three.
According to the findings, 22% of respondents in this income bracket said they could not afford the full rent payment when it was due at some point during 2025, up from roughly 14% in 2024.
The affordability squeeze is not limited to middle‑income renters. The survey found that 28% of lower‑income renters reported being unable to pay rent in 2025, an increase from about 24% in 2019, while even among higher‑earning renters, the share who missed a rent payment rose to 7%, up two percentage points from the prior year.
In contrast, homeowners’ ability to meet mortgage payments has remained steady for the past seven years, indicating that the mounting pressure is specific to the rental market.
“We have historically observed that low‑income renters experience high rates of housing cost‑burdens and, as a result, are particularly vulnerable to having to make choices between meeting their family’s basic needs or paying rent,” said Samantha Batko, senior fellow at the Urban Institute and co‑author of the report. “This increase among middle‑income renters is a big and important shift that reflects overall challenges with affordability in the country.”
The study also highlighted regional variation, with the steepest uptick in rent defaults occurring in the South and the Northeast.
Researchers warned that missing even a single rent payment can trigger eviction in many states, raising concerns about a potential rise in homelessness as more households face the dilemma of choosing between essential expenses such as food, medication or energy bills and their rent.
More than 20% of renters also reported struggling to pay for gas, oil or electricity last year, underscoring the broader squeeze from rising everyday costs.
Policy analysts pointed to a recent rule issued by the Trump administration that would allow administrators of federal housing‑assistance programs to impose restrictions on aid, including time limits and work requirements, potentially limiting access to rental subsidies for those most in need.
Urban Institute researchers cautioned that unless wage growth or housing costs improve, the trend of increasing rent non‑payment among middle‑income families could continue, amplifying the risk of evictions and deepening the nation’s housing affordability crisis.