The survey of 1,280 respondents, conducted September 14‑15 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 points, shows 53% of voters would pick a Democratic congressional candidate compared with 41% for a Republican, a 12‑point advantage for Democrats.
Respondents also indicated that Democrats are perceived as better equipped to handle gas prices, the economy and foreign policy, with leads of 40%‑27% on gas, 42%‑38% on the economy and 42%‑36% on foreign policy.
President Trump’s approval remains near a historic low, with only 39% approving his performance and a record‑high 53% expressing strong disapproval – the highest level of strong disapproval recorded since the question was first asked in 2017.
A plurality of voters (45%) say their congressional vote will be a referendum on Trump, including four‑fifths of Democrats and about half of independents, while roughly a quarter of voters – 59% of Republicans and 51% of Trump‑2024 supporters – say their vote is about supporting the president.
The poll notes a 13‑point swing from Trump’s 2024 popular‑vote margin, making traditionally conservative House districts and Senate races competitive, and raising the prospect that Democrats could regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.
Democratic enthusiasm appears to be buoyed by backlash against the party in power, with independents showing notable support, and Republican voters showing lower engagement, including less frequent tracking of the midterms and reduced concern over congressional control.
Republican candidates are beginning to distance themselves from Trump on key issues: Florida Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar criticized the president’s immigration enforcement, while Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson and former Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers, both Senate hopefuls, have endorsed ending the war in Iran and suspending gas taxes to address rising fuel costs.
Fuel prices remain a pressing concern, with AAA reporting record‑high average diesel prices of $6.31 per gallon in Iowa and $6.88 in Michigan, underscoring the economic anxieties that are shaping voter preferences.