In a series of interviews conducted over 360 miles of South Texas highways, Latino voters expressed disappointment that President Trump failed to lower gasoline prices and that his strict immigration enforcement has torn families apart, prompting many to reconsider their party allegiance.
Trump’s nationwide approval rating has slipped to 33%, the lowest level since he returned to office, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, and a September Cook Political‑TelevisaUnivision poll found that 18% of Texas Latinos who voted for Trump no longer support him, while two‑thirds say they would avoid candidates who back his immigration agenda.
Texas Republicans redrew congressional maps last year on the assumption that the Latino bloc that helped deliver Trump’s 2024 victory would remain reliably Republican. The new maps kept districts such as the 15th and 35th heavily Latino—74.5% and 51.6% of the citizen voting‑age population respectively—but made them far more competitive, with the 15th now rated a “Toss‑up” by Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the 35th “Lean Republican.”
A Texas Southern University poll in August 2026 showed Democratic congressional candidates leading in three South Texas districts, including the 15th, where incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz faces Democratic singer‑turned‑candidate Bobby Pulido, who is ahead by five points in a late‑month survey.
Pulido, a two‑time Latin Grammy winner, has leveraged his cultural fame and grassroots outreach—appearing at quinceañeras and handing out “Make Quinceañeras Great Again” hats—to boost name recognition among voters who say both parties have misread their economic concerns.
Local voters such as 53‑year‑old Saúl Guajardo, a three‑time Trump supporter, say they are “more open than ever before to vote Democrat” because rising gasoline costs—averaging $4.09 per gallon in McAllen—strain household budgets, and because Trump’s immigration crackdown feels too harsh for families seeking work.
Republican officials, including National Republican Congressional Committee Hispanic press secretary Christian Martinez, reject the notion of a Latino exodus, accusing Democrats of “denial, excuses, and condescension” in addressing the community’s worries.
Analysts like David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report warn that the swing could reshape Texas politics in off‑year and special elections, echoing past patterns where Latino voters have shifted back to Democrats after Republican missteps.