Clashes between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopia’s federal government resumed on Wednesday. Army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula said government troops were fighting organised forces aligned with outside interests. He alleged that neither Eritrea nor the TPLF could achieve its aims without support from Sudan, Egypt and other countries. These are claims by Ethiopia’s military leadership; the report does not independently confirm foreign involvement.
The renewed heavy fighting has raised fears of a return to the 2020–2022 civil war, in which an estimated 600,000 people died. The TPLF has seized airports and launched attacks in the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara, describing its campaign as a defensive war against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. A humanitarian source said the Afar town of Erebti, near the Tigray border, fell to rebel forces on Sunday after heavy artillery fire. The source said TPLF forces were advancing towards Afdeera, about 100 kilometres to the east.
The same source estimated that at least 150,000 people had been displaced in Afar, while saying a precise count was impossible. The offensive there could threaten supply routes from Djibouti, which carries almost all of Ethiopia’s international trade cargo, including fuel. The TPLF has allied with seven armed groups around the country and appears to be repeating a strategy from the previous war by pushing south through Amhara towards Addis Ababa.
Tigrai TV’s headquarters in Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital, was hit by a drone on Sunday. A journalist told AFP that staff fled after hearing a loud explosion. Photos taken by a local journalist showed a damaged façade and shattered windows, and another journalist said the station had gone off air. No casualties were immediately reported. The federal government said on September 21 that Tigrai TV had been suspended indefinitely and prohibited other outlets from broadcasting its reports.
Communications in Tigray have been limited since telecom providers reported major disruptions to phone and internet services on Friday. Residents fear a repeat of the 2020–2022 blockade, when electricity, banking and almost all aid were cut off. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said he was particularly troubled by reports of drone use and harm to civilians.
The federal government has a significant military advantage, including a large drone arsenal, about 500,000 troops and foreign support, notably from the United Arab Emirates. The conflict could still draw in neighbouring Eritrea, which fears that landlocked Ethiopia plans to seize direct access to the Red Sea. The TPLF ruled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018; it was sidelined after Abiy became prime minister, a shift that preceded a war marked by widespread war crimes and sexual violence.
The 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, brokered by African institutions and Washington, brought an uneasy calm but was never fully implemented. Around one million people remain unable to return home. Sporadic clashes resumed, federal forces launched multiple drone strikes in Tigray in recent months and troops massed near the border. Rights groups have also accused the TPLF of forced recruitment as it prepared for renewed conflict.