Iran sent the proposal through Qatari intermediaries last week. Trump rejected it over the weekend, but said in an interview that further talks could take place this week. The diplomatic impasse has added uncertainty around flows through a critical energy route.
Analysts say regional risks remain elevated, including because Yemen’s Houthi rebels continue missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia. Before the conflict, about 20% of global oil and gas supplies moved through the Strait of Hormuz.
Middle Eastern crude exports have nevertheless recovered somewhat. Data from analytics firm Kpler available on Monday showed September shipments at 12.8 million barrels per day, their highest level since the war began in February. The increase was driven mainly by Saudi and United Arab Emirates cargoes rerouted through alternative routes.
Even with that recovery, exports from the region remain about 6 million barrels per day below their prewar level. The latest increase therefore has yet to offset the disruption caused by the conflict and changes to established shipping routes.