The Institute for the Study of War says the lack of rapid battlefield gains is pushing the Kremlin toward a prolonged campaign of strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian life. This is the institute’s assessment, not a confirmed statement of Russian policy.
ISW says large-scale attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure began in late September, ahead of the heating season. The institute links the timing to an effort to exploit Russia’s current capacity to use jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles before Ukraine can deploy more effective countermeasures.
The Kremlin has framed the escalation as retaliation for alleged Ukrainian strikes on civilian targets in Russia, the report says. ISW calls those claims unsupported and views them as an attempt to justify attacks on already damaged critical infrastructure. The article also cites pro-Kremlin military blogger Rybar, who called the accusations against Ukraine insincere and noted Russia’s repeated attacks on Kyiv since the 2022 full-scale invasion began.
The report estimates Russia has about 700 ballistic missiles and produces another 130 to 140 each month. ISW believes Moscow may be holding these weapons for wider use if Ukrainian defenses become more effective against jet-powered drones.
Ukraine, the article says, is developing Bars interceptor drones with partners including Germany and installing heavy machine-gun positions to protect the capital. It cites UN figures recording 15,280 civilians killed or injured in Ukraine in the first eight months of 2026, 55% more than in the same period of 2025. During Sept. 27-Oct. 4, Russia reportedly used more than 1,900 attack drones, 1,700 guided bombs and 25 missiles.