A new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released on Wednesday shows Brazil’s incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right‑wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro virtually dead‑locked in a simulated second‑round vote, with Lula holding a marginal lead that falls inside the survey’s margin of error.
The poll, conducted between Sept. 17 and 22, surveyed 5,015 eligible voters nationwide. In the simulated runoff scenario, Lula garnered 47.7 % of support while Bolsonaro received 47.4 %, a difference of just three tenths of a percentage point.
A separate question on a first‑round outcome placed Lula at 45.8 % and Bolsonaro at 43.4 %, with the remaining votes split among Renan Santos (4.5 %), Augusto Cury (2.1 %) and Ronaldo Caiado (1.3 %).
The same pollster’s earlier survey, released a week earlier, had shown Lula at 44.1 % and Bolsonaro at 41.7 % in a first‑round scenario, indicating a narrowing gap as the October 4 election approaches.
Brazil’s electoral system requires a candidate to secure more than 50 % of valid votes to win outright. If no one reaches that threshold, the top two candidates will face a runoff on Oct. 25, a contest that this poll suggests could be decided by a razor‑thin margin.
AtlasIntel reports a margin of error of ±1 percentage point for the poll, meaning the current tie between Lula and Bolsonaro falls within statistical uncertainty. Both campaigns have yet to comment on the findings.