Nvidia’s market value approached $5.7 trillion after its shares rose 1.3% on Friday, helping the Nasdaq-100 close at a record. Prices in the options market imply roughly a 50% chance that the chipmaker will reach a $6 trillion valuation by the end of October, CNBC reported. That is a probability inferred from options pricing, not a guaranteed outcome or a conventional forecast.
The estimate is based on options expiring this week and on October 30. Traders’ pricing implies about a 67% chance of Nvidia reaching $6 trillion by December 18. To reach $7 trillion, the company’s shares would need to touch $248 based on the current share count. Options also imply roughly a one-in-sixteen chance of that milestone by November 20.
The latest rally followed seven weeks of sideways trading and came amid anticipation of a meeting between the U.S. president and corporate executives working on “super intelligence.” Nvidia represents about 13% of the Nasdaq and 8% of the S&P 500, giving its share-price moves significant influence over both indexes. Ben Emons, managing director at Highline Asset Management, described the company’s buyback announcement as a bright spot and said it signalled confidence in long-term demand for artificial intelligence.
Options probabilities require caution. Delta measures how sensitive an option’s price is to a move in the underlying stock. A probability of an upward move does not mean that a similarly sized move in the opposite direction is ruled out. Some Nvidia call options are trading at higher implied volatility than comparable puts, a “call skew” that suggests traders are paying relatively more to hedge against a rally. It does not remove the risk of a decline.