Jannik Sinner has ended his 2026 season because of a knee problem and will no longer be able to defend ranking points. A points projection by Il Fatto Quotidiano suggests Alexander Zverev could finish the year above him even without earning additional points.
Sinner enters the remaining stretch of the season atop the ATP rankings with 11,000 points, while Zverev is second on 9,720. After the Italian announced he would end his season to undergo knee treatment, points earned at last year’s tournaments will begin to expire from his total. Il Fatto Quotidiano calculates that 3,050 of Sinner’s points are due to drop off by the end of the calendar.
That total includes 50 points from Shanghai, 500 from Vienna, 1,000 from Paris and 1,500 for his unbeaten title at the ATP Finals in Turin. If Sinner does not play again in 2026, his tally will fall in stages from 11,000 to 7,950.
Zverev has 980 points to defend: 50 in Shanghai, 330 in Vienna, 400 in Paris and 200 in Turin. Even if the German earns no new points at those events, he would be left with 8,740 after the deductions. That is 790 more than Sinner’s projected year-end total, so Zverev would not need to win a tournament to pass him in the year-end rankings.
The first opportunity would come at the Vienna tournament, scheduled for October 26 to November 1. Once 50 points expire in Shanghai, Sinner would have 10,950 and Zverev 9,670 before adding results. Even a Shanghai title would take Zverev to 10,670, still 280 points short of Sinner’s projected total at that stage.
Sinner is due to lose another 500 points in Vienna, taking his interim total to 10,450. For Zverev to move ahead there, he would need to earn more than 1,110 points across Shanghai and Vienna combined. If that does not happen, the next opportunity would be the Paris tournament: after 1,000 points expire, Sinner would have 9,450, while Zverev’s base after the deductions would be 8,940.
The final stage is the ATP Finals in Turin, scheduled for November 15–22. When Sinner’s 1,500 points expire, he would fall to 7,950. Zverev’s projected minimum would remain 8,740 even without further points, making a change at the top inevitable by the end of the season if the published points projection and tournament calendar remain unchanged.