Political scientist Renato Dolci says social-policy ties and the Workers’ Party’s mobilisation efforts may help explain the region’s lower turnout absence. The explanation is his assessment, not an established causal finding.
More than 33 million people stayed away from Brazil’s first-round general election on October 4, roughly 21% of voters. Data from the Superior Electoral Court cited by CNN Brasil put abstention at 21.07% nationwide and 18.36% in the Northeast. The gap was the subject of analysis by political scientist Renato Dolci on CNN Brasil. He linked the Northeast’s lower rate to efforts by Workers’ Party governments and to some residents’ reliance on social programmes.
Dolci cautioned against explaining abstention with a single cause. He said it has historically remained high in Brazil and that its rise from one election to the next is concerning. Among possible factors, he cited population ageing, as older people may find it harder to reach polling stations. He also pointed to voter fatigue with the political climate, a trend he said polling institutes had identified earlier.
State-level campaigns also shape the pattern, Dolci said. Turnout tends to be higher in close races, while voters may stay home when the outcome appears more predictable. He cited São Paulo, where polling had suggested the governor’s race was relatively settled. Official figures cited by CNN Brasil put abstention at 18.36% in the Northeast and 21.07% nationwide.
Dolci said abstention may have a stronger effect on PT votes because, in his assessment, older and less affluent voters are overrepresented among those who stay home. He warned that turnout differences could affect the outcome of a close race. The analyst expects little change between the first and second rounds, citing a historical variation of about 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points. If the pattern holds, he said, the second round may also see high abstention.