The agency expects Brent to average about $98 a barrel this year and $84 in 2027 amid supply disruption and falling inventories.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its oil price forecasts for this year and next, citing rapidly declining global inventories and tight diesel supplies amid the continuing conflict between the United States and Iran.
In its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released on October 6, the agency said it expects benchmark Brent crude to average about $98 a barrel in 2026, 8% above its previous forecast. It projects Brent at about $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter, $14 higher than its earlier estimate.
The EIA also expects US retail diesel prices to remain above $6 a gallon in October. It expects Middle East oil production and exports to recover gradually as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz improves and producers shift to alternative export routes.
The agency raised its 2027 Brent forecast to an average of $84 a barrel, $10 above its previous estimate. As alternative routes expand, the EIA expects curtailed Middle East production to fall from 4.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2.7 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2027.