Brent Crude Near $100 as US-Iran Conflict Fuels Warning of $120–$130 Oil, India Risks in Focus

Barratt said the market is not merely reacting to headlines. Without a resolution to the US-Iran conflict, he warned, the risk premium could push Brent into the $120–$130 range.

The supply backdrop is tightening. Around 8–9 million barrels of supply are at risk, shipping activity is falling, strategic reserves are depleted and uncertainty surrounds OPEC+ supply. Together, those factors point to a potentially bigger shock for the oil market.

For India, the stakes are even higher. Expensive crude can pressure inflation, the trade deficit, the rupee and equity markets, making the path of Brent a direct concern for Indian investors and policymakers.

The market is also focused on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+ supply decisions, which could determine whether the risk premium persists or eases. A move toward $120 oil would carry particular significance for Indian markets.

With the conflict unresolved, Barratt’s warning leaves open the possibility that $100 is not the ceiling for Brent and that the next leg higher could be sharper than current prices suggest.