Nigerians burn roughly 50 million litres of petrol each day, a demand that the 700,000‑barrel‑per‑day Dangote Refinery claims it can meet on its own.

Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show that in the first six months of 2026, Dangote and a handful of smaller domestic refineries supplied almost 80 % of the fuel available in the country.

Imports, which once accounted for about 60 % of Nigeria’s petrol supply in 2025, have fallen to just over 20 % between January and July 2026, reflecting the growing share of locally refined fuel.

The price of Brent crude – the benchmark Nigeria uses – has climbed to more than $100 a barrel, a rise of over 70 % since the start of the year, and this increase is being passed on to consumers through multiple price hikes, including the steepest rise recorded in the first weeks after the war in Ukraine began.

Up to 40 % of the crude processed at the Dangote plant is imported, while another 40 % comes from a government‑run scheme that sells oil in the local currency, meaning the refinery is also exposed to the global price surge.

Dangote’s CEO, David Bird, told Semafor that the company’s goal is to offer high‑quality fuel at a fair price, but he blames regulatory uncertainty for the current tension, saying, “If the regulator is allowing some pretty rubbishy Russian material that can’t find a home anywhere else in the world, then how can we compete?”

In May, Dangote filed a lawsuit challenging licences granted by NMDPRA, arguing that continued fuel imports undermine the refinery’s investment and make the domestic market inefficient. Importers counter that they provide essential supply diversity, security and competition.

Analyst Adedayo Ademuwagun of Songhai Advisory warned that regulators should prioritize consumer interests, noting that “if an importer can supply quality fuel at a lower price, why should the government force a teacher in Lagos to pay more for locally refined fuel?”

The combined effect of rising global oil prices and the regulatory dispute is expected to keep domestic fuel costs high, even as the Dangote Refinery moves toward its initial public offering later this year.