Kenya is entering the October–December 2026 rainy season with an 81 percent probability of a very strong El Niño, according to the Kenya Meteorological Department, which also warned that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could intensify rainfall across much of the country.
The coalition noted that the government has moved beyond forecasts, launching a suite of preparedness actions such as mapping flood‑ and landslide‑prone zones, clearing drainage channels and culverts, pre‑positioning relief supplies, and placing emergency response teams on standby, while directing all 47 counties to identify high‑risk areas and safe evacuation sites.
These steps follow deadly flooding earlier in 2026 that claimed 62 lives by mid‑March and displaced more than 2,000 families, with additional mud‑slide deaths reported in Tharaka‑Nithi, Elgeyo‑Marakwet and Kiambu counties; the coalition also cited the 2024 floods that killed 315 people, displaced about 410,000 and caused roughly Ksh 187 billion in damage.
TISA Kenya stressed that the real test now is whether the plans, funds and warnings are translated into accessible protection for communities before the rains intensify, warning that flooded farms, livestock losses, damaged markets and blocked roads could shrink food availability and push prices higher.
The statement highlighted concerns that the impacts will not be evenly distributed: women and girls may face added care burdens, while children, the elderly, persons with disabilities, pastoralists, small‑scale producers and informal‑settlement residents could encounter greater barriers to warnings, evacuation and assistance.
Kenya’s climate‑resilience financing is also under scrutiny. The National Treasury confirmed a Ksh 7.1 billion disbursement under the Financing Locally‑Led Climate Action programme to 45 counties, intended to support locally led climate‑resilience activities, making the upcoming rains a litmus test for the effective use of those funds.
Health authorities, including the World Health Organization, have warned that increased rainfall could strain water, sanitation and disease‑control systems, adding another layer of risk for vulnerable populations.
The Right to Food Coalition called for a national‑county preparedness compact grounded in transparency, public participation and non‑discrimination, insisting that affected communities be meaningfully involved in decisions that affect their safety and food security.