Ruble weakens against dollar, euro and yuan as Bank of Russia raises rates

The Bank of Russia set the dollar at 85.7116 rubles, the euro at 96.0313 and the yuan at 12.7984 for October 7. The ruble also lost ground in trading after the Finance Ministry sharply increased foreign-currency purchases.

The Bank of Russia set its official dollar rate for Wednesday, October 7, at 85.7116 rubles, the euro at 96.0313 and the Chinese yuan at 12.7984. Compared with Tuesday’s rates, the dollar rose by 78.07 kopecks, the euro by 69.64 kopecks and the yuan by 14.93 kopecks. The official dollar and euro rates are also used to settle a range of Moscow Exchange derivatives.

The ruble moved unevenly against different currencies in Tuesday’s foreign-exchange trading. At 5:38 p.m. Moscow time, the yuan was at 12.75 rubles on the Moscow Exchange, down 0.1% from the previous close. The USDRUB_TOM instrument had risen 0.4% to 86.15 rubles by 5 p.m. During forex trading, the dollar moved above 86 rubles for the first time in a month.

Pressure on the ruble increased after the Finance Ministry announced that its daily foreign-currency purchases would rise more than fivefold in October and early November under the budget rule. Analysts cited by RBC also pointed to stronger importer demand ahead of year-end and seasonal purchases. At the same time, currency supply depends on export proceeds: economist Yegor Susin estimated that revenues from shipments sold at the higher prices seen in September and October would reach companies in about two months.

Reduced business activity in China during the October 1–7 holiday week was another factor for the yuan market. Susin said actual yuan transactions were not taking place during the holiday period. After it ends, importers may act on deferred demand, PSB analysts said, potentially bringing the yuan close to its September highs of around 13 rubles. The bank nevertheless expects favorable conditions for Russian exports to limit further ruble depreciation.

Currency sales by exporters ahead of month-end tax payments could support the ruble. Alexey Golovinov of Vector Capital said exporters may increase sales before those payments. Ilya Fedorov, chief economist at BCS World of Investments, said the dollar could rise to 86–87 rubles as a local peak before returning to 80–85 in November. These are analysts’ estimates, not a guaranteed forecast.

USDRUB_TOM reflects dollar-ruble transactions settled in rubles on the following day. Trading in the instrument on the Moscow Exchange was suspended after the exchange was added to the U.S. sanctions list in June 2024 and resumed in mid-February 2026. During the suspension, the dollar continued to trade over the counter.