Under a cold-winter scenario with tight LNG supplies, EU gas storage could fall to 11% by the end of March 2027, ENTSOG said. The figure is a stress-case result, not a forecast of actual storage levels.
In its Winter Supply Outlook 2026/27, ENTSOG assessed the gas system under different demand and liquefied natural gas availability assumptions. EU storage was 72% full on October 1, a historically low level for the start of winter, the network operators’ group said.
With reference demand and Russian pipeline supply minimised, the model puts end-March storage at 29% if LNG availability is strong and 13% if it is tight. In a colder-winter scenario, limited LNG could require demand cuts or leave up to 40 billion cubic metres, about 12%, of demand unmet. The remaining storage in that scenario corresponds to the strategic reserve level.
Low stocks would make it harder to prepare for the following heating season. Under tight LNG supply, storage could reach only 65% by the end of September 2027, compared with 72% in ENTSOG’s 2026 scenario. European rules set a 90% storage target for the period from October 1 to December 1, while allowing a reduction of 10 percentage points in difficult conditions.
ENTSOG said the outcome depends on weather, LNG imports and other conditions. Its scenarios assess possible risks and are not predictions of actual supply or storage levels.