The ARD‑televised exit poll placed the AfD ahead of the centre‑left Social Democrats, who were projected at 35.5 %, while Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) trailed far behind at about 5.5 % and only just cleared the 5 % threshold needed to enter the state parliament.

Despite the AfD’s clear lead, party officials said a coalition with the mainstream parties remains unlikely, as the SPD, Greens and FDP have all ruled out working with the far‑right group.

If the poll results are confirmed, the September 20 outcome would be the worst state‑election performance for the CDU‑led Union since the first post‑war election in 1949, and marks the second first‑place finish for the AfD at the sub‑national level within a month, following its strong showing in Saxony‑Anhalt earlier in September.

In Berlin, which held its own state election on the same day, the left‑wing Linke party led with 24.5 % of the vote, the CDU secured 20 %, and the AfD garnered about 16 %, indicating a broader surge for the party in urban and rural areas alike.

Merz, who addressed the media after the Berlin results, described the Mecklenburg‑Western Pomerania poll as a “disaster” but pledged to continue his reform agenda and remain in office, dismissing speculation that he might resign.

The chancellor’s reform package, unveiled on Sept. 18, includes tax cuts on gas and diesel aimed at easing the cost‑of‑living pressures that voters in the eastern state cited as a major concern, alongside broader pension, tax and healthcare changes that have drawn criticism.

Senior CDU leaders have rallied behind Merz, noting that any change of leadership would face constitutional hurdles and would inherit the same economic challenges, while the AfD’s rise continues to test the “firewall” strategy of mainstream parties that refuse coalition deals with the far‑right.

The election results come as the AfD, once a fringe eurosceptic movement, has become the most popular party in national opinion polls, advocating stricter immigration controls, renewed energy ties with Russia and a potential exit from the euro.