The head of the Australian Institute of Petroleum, Malcolm Roberts, told reporters that the "buffers are no longer there to the same degree" after the International Energy Agency estimated global fuel inventories have dropped by 507 million barrels – roughly 2.8 million barrels a day – since the war in Iran began eight months ago.

For months, governments and energy firms have been drawing down emergency reserves to compensate for shipments disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint that has been repeatedly threatened by Iranian attacks and, more recently, by drone strikes that forced Saudi Arabia to suspend a major crude pipeline.

Those releases, combined with higher output from producers and refineries in the Americas, initially prevented the Middle East supply shock from spiralling into a broader energy crisis, while higher fuel prices and work‑from‑home policies curbed demand in many price‑sensitive markets.

Australia is especially vulnerable because more than 80 % of its petrol, diesel and jet fuel is imported after a series of domestic refinery closures over the past decade. The country’s average regular‑unleaded price has risen almost 40 % since July to over AU$2.30 per litre, and diesel has jumped nearly 60 % to AU$2.88 per litre.

Despite the price surge, industry leaders say a supply shortage in Australia remains unlikely. Roberts noted that domestic importers have secured enough contracted cargoes and can tap additional shipments when needed, aided by the Albanese government’s underwriting scheme that helps lock in cargoes amid tight global markets.

Ampol chief executive Matt Halliday described the geopolitical outlook as "extraordinarily difficult to read," warning that sudden shifts in shipping routes or policy decisions – such as a possible U.S. ban on diesel exports under President Donald Trump – could quickly affect global availability and push prices higher.

While Australia’s own fuel reserves still hold more than a month’s supply of petrol and diesel, officials cautioned that any further disruption to global supply chains would amplify price pressures, especially for diesel, which has already been climbing sharply.