British Prime Minister Andy Burnham publicly identified Iran as a likely participant in the incident near RAF Fairford. In a BBC interview on Wednesday, he said the police investigation remains ongoing, complex and serious, and described the assessment as based on intelligence.
Five men were arrested near the base in the early hours of Sunday. Three vans were initially thought to contain explosives. Police later said they found no explosives, though they did find stored fuel. All five were released on bail.
Burnham praised Gloucestershire Police and counter-terrorism officers and said Britain was working closely with the United States. UK ministers and security officials have not confirmed President Donald Trump's claim that the suspects had been under surveillance for a long time.
British media reported that one suspect called the 999 emergency line at 12:45 a.m., before a local farmer spotted the men and contacted police after 1:30 a.m. The timing has left questions about who first alerted authorities and why.
Burnham said intelligence pointed to an attempt by hired petty criminals to test defences at a major base used to support US bombers striking targets in Iran. That differs from online speculation about a simple fuel theft. Iran's ambassador in London denied Tehran's responsibility; the inquiry has not concluded.
Burnham said he chose to make the intelligence assessment public to be frank with citizens about state threats. The report compares this with Germany's investigation of a drone incident involving an aircraft in Leipzig, in which authorities later named Russia.
London's position is closer to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement that a foreign actor was clearly involved, but differs from Trump's more specific claim about surveillance. The article also recalls Australia's response to attacks on Jewish sites in Sydney and Melbourne in late 2024: authorities initially used cautious language, the Australian Federal Police later warned that foreign actors were hiring criminals, and ASIO chief Mike Burgess subsequently named Iran. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese then publicly adopted that assessment and expelled the Iranian ambassador.