Geographers say Caspian island Nordovy could join the mainland

Nordovy Island could become connected to the mainland as the Caspian Sea recedes, geographers told RBC. They described a change in the coastline rather than a loss of Russian territory.

Professor Natalia Serditova explained that falling water levels expose shallow seabed that can link coastal islands to land. The northern Caspian is particularly sensitive because of its shallow waters and gently sloping floor.

She said the timing of any connection would depend on the separating channel's depth, seabed relief, the rate of decline and local water movements. A precise forecast would require recent satellite imagery and depth measurements.

Sergey Mukhametov, a lecturer at Moscow State University's geography faculty, estimated roughly 20 years if the current rate persisted. His calculation assumes a decline of about 4.5 metres and remains a conditional projection.

Arkady Tishkov, chief researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Geography, told RBC that levels had fallen by about 23 centimetres annually over the past five years. He linked the process to natural fluctuations and reduced Volga runoff.

Serditova said the enclosed sea's level depends on river inflows and evaporation. Mukhametov identified climatic changes in the Volga basin and evaporation from reservoirs among the contributing factors.

The decline changes habitats for fish and waterbirds and affects navigation and ports. Tishkov pointed to drying spawning grounds and recalled that coastal areas developed during an earlier retreat were subsequently flooded.