IEEFA says EU may need to cut winter gas demand by 14 bcm

EU storage was 72.4% full on October 3, the lowest level for this time of year since 2011. Analysts warn that a cold winter could bring costly purchases or demand restrictions.

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) estimates that the European Union may need to cut winter gas consumption by 14 billion cubic meters, or about 7% compared with the previous winter, in the 2026–27 season. This is a scenario estimate, not a claim that a physical shortage is inevitable.

EU storage stood at 72.4% full on October 3, the lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2011. IEEFA estimates that storage could supply 7.3 billion cubic meters less gas to the market this winter than last. Analysts cite recovering demand, disruptions to global markets amid the war in Iran and weaker summer injections.

In a stress scenario from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG), storage could fall to 11% if the weather is cold and LNG supplies are limited. To end the season with stocks at 30%, countries would have to reduce or restrict consumption by an amount equivalent to 7% of demand. IEEFA stresses that this scenario does not mean EU storage will run dry.

IEEFA estimates that importing additional gas to cover the storage gap would cost about €3 billion more than a year ago, a 12% increase. In January 2026, EU countries withdrew 22.6 billion cubic meters from storage, compared with 18.8 billion in January 2025 and 17.8 billion in January 2024.

An EU ban on Russian LNG imports under long-term contracts takes effect on January 1, 2027, adding another change to the supply picture. The European Commission says the bloc is better prepared for winter than it was in 2021–22, citing diversified supplies, expanded LNG import capacity and lower demand. The need for additional purchases will depend on weather and consumption.