India outpaces China in new investment share, but strategic capital stays concentrated in the West

India attracted 5.7% of global greenfield investment from 2020 to 2025, more than twice China’s 2.8% share. Yet most investment in strategic sectors went to Europe and North America, according to UNCTAD.

UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report 2026 examines projects in which companies establish new operations abroad. Malaysia accounted for 4% of global greenfield investment during the period, Indonesia for 3.8% and China for 2.8%. The share directed to strategic sectors rose from 16% in 2020 to 44% in 2025.

Of the $845.7 billion invested in strategic sectors over those years, 12.4% went to artificial intelligence infrastructure and related technologies. The semiconductor value chain received 8.1%, while energy-transition technologies and services took 7.8%. Europe attracted 28.4% of strategic investment and North America 28%. Developing Asia accounted for 26.5% among developing economies.

The report also compared industrial policy measures. India implemented 1,416 measures from 2008 to 2021, behind China at 4,201 and the United States at 4,025. In the shorter 2022–2025 period, India introduced 707 measures, about half its total in the previous 14 years. The United States, China, Australia and Brazil each implemented more measures during that period.

UNCTAD projects India’s GDP to grow 7.3% in 2026 and 6.8% in 2027, citing domestic demand, expanding manufacturing capacity and public infrastructure programmes. It also sees household consumption growth slowing from an estimated 6.9% this year to 5.6% next year as higher prices and input costs weigh on spending.