Alberto Carlos Almeida says most voters have made up their minds and that formal political endorsements matter more for future government talks than for voting.
Political scientist Alberto Carlos Almeida says Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has already used most of the available options to reverse the unfavorable election dynamics before the runoff. Speaking on CNN 360°, he said most voters had made up their minds and a comeback would be unprecedented in Brazil’s political history.
Almeida recalled telling newspaper O Globo in March that Lula risked losing if the government’s approval rating remained low. He said the rating for the government’s performance as “excellent” or “good” was then 32%, and argued that keeping that level or falling below 36–38% by election time would make Lula the favorite to lose.
Almeida described governing as a continuous electoral campaign: a government that does not win majority support risks defeat at the polls. He called the current election a choice for change and said the candidate who finishes first in the opening round generally has a significant advantage in the runoff.
He also questioned whether endorsements by candidates eliminated in the first round, such as Ronaldo Caiado’s backing of Flávio Bolsonaro, would substantially change their supporters’ choices. In Almeida’s view, Caiado’s voters were already inclined to support Flávio; a politician announcing an endorsement tends to follow voters rather than lead them.
Almeida said endorsements matter more in negotiations over a possible future government than in the vote itself. He linked the rarity of a change in the leader between rounds to Brazil’s requirement that a candidate win an absolute majority to take the presidency in the first round.