AI-related demand supports the forecast, although analysts have cut their estimate by 7.7% since late August.
The Samsung Electronics logo is seen at the company’s store in Seoul, South Korea, on April 15, 2025. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji. Market expectations indicate that the world’s largest memory-chip maker will post operating profit of 106.1 trillion won. Analysts say AI should lift Samsung’s profit ninefold in the third quarter. Samsung Electronics is expected to report a nearly ninefold jump in third-quarter operating profit, driven by strong artificial-intelligence demand, although analysts have cut forecasts by nearly 8% since late August. Despite more moderate memory-chip price gains and a stronger won, the market expects operating profit of 106.1 trillion won ($79.1 billion) for the July-to-September quarter. The LSEG SmartEstimate is based on forecasts from 21 analysts and gives greater weight to those with stronger track records; it has been cut by 7.7% since late August.
The projection is up from 12.17 trillion won a year earlier and would mark Samsung’s fourth consecutive quarter of record operating profit. Memory-chip makers expect the supply shortage, which began more than a year ago, to persist into next year and perhaps through 2028. Samsung will provide preliminary third-quarter results on Thursday, with detailed data due in late October.
TrendForce expects contract prices for conventional DRAM to rise 10% to 15% in the fourth quarter from the third, slowing from the roughly 60% increase recorded in the second quarter. “Although the market remains in a supply-constrained position, the pace of price growth is expected to slow,” said Avril Wu, the company’s senior vice president of research. In July, Samsung said it aimed to secure long-term contracts covering about two-thirds of its memory-chip production, joining competitors seeking to reduce their exposure to industry boom-and-bust cycles. According to SK Securities analyst Han Dong-hee, Samsung’s operating margin in the memory-chip segment is expected to reach 76% in the third quarter, unchanged from the previous quarter.
The company also faces growing competition from Chinese rivals. They remain focused on lower-end products but are benefiting from the AI-driven memory shortage. “Our industry analysis indicates that a growing number of OEMs and ODMs are adopting Chinese DRAM and NAND,” said Kinngai Chan, a senior research analyst at Summit Insights Group, in a report.
Currency movements are another headwind. The won strengthened 14.3% against the dollar in the third quarter, recovering sharply from a 17-year low and posting its largest quarterly gain since early 1998. This reduces earnings from Samsung’s overseas operations when converted into won. The market expects higher sales of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a key component in AI data centres. Samsung had fallen behind in HBM supply after delays in product certification for Nvidia, but gained ground this year by expanding shipments of its latest HBM4 chips. Analysts expect Samsung’s share of the HBM market to rise from 20% last year to 34% this year, according to JPMorgan estimates, while rival SK Hynix’s share is forecast to fall from 60% to 46%.
Samsung is due to release preliminary third-quarter results on Thursday before detailed figures are published in late October. The company said in July it wanted long-term contracts for roughly two-thirds of its memory-chip output. This is part of an industry effort to reduce exposure to cycles of expansion and contraction.