Former immigration department deputy secretary Abul Rizvi says the Coalition’s plan to cut net overseas migration to 100,000 a year needs clearer calculations. He also says Australia’s visa system is under strain.
Speaking to The Sydney Morning Herald, Rizvi said visa processing had slowed and the system was leaving many people in prolonged uncertainty. He argued that debate should address administrative failures as well as the number of arrivals.
Rizvi cited Australian Bureau of Statistics data on permanent migrants who have arrived since 2000. On average, they are more likely to hold post-school qualifications, be employed, earn higher incomes and start businesses. They are also less likely to be unemployed or use health services. Rizvi said those outcomes undercut claims that migrants are responsible for Australia’s weak productivity growth.
Net overseas migration currently stands at about 292,000 people a year, according to Rizvi. He called that too high if the aim is to reduce the number of people caught in the visa system. He said the programme could be better targeted, including by retaining graduates in fields with lasting demand, such as nursing and engineering.
Rizvi blamed both major parties for the current pressures. After the pandemic, the former Coalition government accelerated migration amid business complaints about labour shortages. Net overseas migration reached 538,000 in 2022–23. The Labor government initially described the rise as a post-pandemic catch-up before later promising to meet the forecasts set out in the budget.
A sharp reduction in migration could accelerate population ageing and bring forward the point when deaths exceed births, Rizvi said. The share of older people would grow relative to the working-age population, increasing the burden on those supporting the economy. But very high migration also puts pressure on housing, infrastructure and services. Rizvi said the debate should focus on balancing those risks.
The Coalition has proposed lowering net overseas migration to 100,000 a year. The newspaper’s report says experts have questioned whether the target can be reached under the announced measures. Rizvi did not offer a specific figure he considers optimal.