Astronomers assess X-class flare risk from Earth-facing solar region

The probability of an X-class flare from solar active region 4551 in the coming days is 10–15%, according to the Solar Astronomy Laboratory. The sunspot group is currently facing almost directly towards Earth.

The region has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration associated with a high risk of strong flares. Models put the likelihood of an M-class flare at about 70%. RBC and Hi-Tech Mail reported the laboratory’s assessment on October 16.

The scientists outlined two scenarios. If the region remains relatively inactive, quiet geomagnetic conditions could continue into next week. A powerful flare could instead bring effects to Earth on Sunday, October 18, or Monday, October 19.

Solar flares are classified by strength as A, B, C, M and X. Each successive class represents roughly a tenfold increase in power.