Bank of Russia sets October 22 official dollar rate below 82 rubles

The Bank of Russia set its official dollar exchange rate for October 22 at 81.9739 rubles. The official rate fell below 82 rubles for the first time since August 7.

The euro rate was set at 91.9337 rubles and the yuan at 12.2806 rubles. The dollar fell by 91.40 kopecks from the previous official rate, the euro by 1.108 rubles and the yuan by 9.02 kopecks.

At 17:55 Moscow time on October 21, the exchange-traded yuan stood at 12.23 rubles, down 0.96% from the previous close. That was a market quote at a specified time, while the central bank's figures are official rates for the following day.

Dmitry Babin of BCS World of Investments linked the ruble's gains to an improved geopolitical news backdrop and reduced demand for foreign currency as a defensive asset. Natalia Pyryeva of Tsifra Broker pointed to approaching tax payments, including the quarterly tax on additional hydrocarbon extraction income, for which exporters sell foreign currency.

BCS analyst Mikhail Zeltser also cited tight monetary policy. He expects the central bank to keep its key rate at 14% on October 23 and considers that level possible through the end of 2026. In an RBC poll, 27 of 30 analysts expected a pause. Two allowed for a 25-basis-point increase to 14.25%, while one saw a case for easing.

PSB analysts see scope for further ruble strength from receipts for oil sold at higher September prices and preparations for tax payments. Bogdan Zvarich said the yuan could test the lower boundary of a 12–12.5 ruble range before the October 28 tax-payment peak.

Sofya Donets, chief analyst at T-Investments, expects the dollar near 85 rubles through the end of 2026 and in an 85–90 ruble range in the first half of 2027. She cited Middle East developments, oil prices, Russia's domestic fuel market and export flows through its ports as factors shaping the outlook.

VIM Investments forecasts a dollar rate of 86 rubles and a yuan rate near 12.8 rubles at the end of 2026. Its analysts cited a lower import share of GDP, a pause in the 2023–2024 economic restructuring investment cycle and reduced capital outflows as supports. Risks include larger Finance Ministry currency purchases if the fiscal-rule oil cutoff price falls in 2027, fuel import needs and companies' foreign-currency debt payments.

The central bank's next scheduled key-rate meeting is on October 23.