Cifra Markets executive forecasts Russia may retain only 50–100 crypto exchanges

Russia could have 50 to 100 cryptocurrency exchange businesses left in 2027, down from roughly two thousand, according to Cifra Markets executive director Alexey Korolenko. He linked his forecast to compliance costs and competition from banks.

Speaking to RIA Novosti, Korolenko said smaller exchange businesses would have to pay for unfamiliar operating procedures and choose between entering the regulated market and operating illegally. In his assessment, many existing businesses will struggle to bear those costs.

The legal framework for regulated cryptocurrency circulation took effect on September 1. The Bank of Russia confirmed that exchange businesses and digital depositories admitted under transitional provisions must comply with the requirements by September 1, 2027.

From July 1, 2027, residents who do not organise digital currency circulation will be able to conduct such transactions only through, or with, organisations that do. This restricts direct transactions between individuals outside the infrastructure provided for by law.

Korolenko identified banks' established transaction monitoring and anti-fraud systems as an advantage. Banks also have apps, existing customers, branches and the ability to handle cash and non-cash ruble payments.

To retain customers, he said, exchange businesses would need a speciality such as additional payment products, service or cross-border settlements. He expects banks to lead the market in three years, with brokers and Russian exchanges playing smaller roles because of the limited range of domestic crypto products.

Korolenko also expects international platforms CoinW and Bybit to continue attracting a substantial share of Russian customer traffic.