Dr Thanavath highlighted that the surge in household indebtedness has become a systemic issue, noting that the current trajectory could push total debt to a record high by year‑end, with serious implications for families approaching retirement.
Bank of Thailand data cited by the academic shows that roughly half of Thai adults begin carrying debt by age 30, and the average outstanding balance remains close to 300,000 baht even at age 70, leaving only a small fraction able to save adequately for retirement.
The financial strain is most acute among households earning less than 30,000 baht a month, many of whom are living paycheck to paycheck and resorting to additional borrowing to cover everyday expenses and keep household finances afloat.
Formal credit channels are increasingly shouldering this cash‑flow gap, with savings cooperatives, credit cards and non‑bank lenders seeing higher usage, while borrowing from informal lenders has been on the decline.
Thailand’s total household debt has risen from 16.31 trillion baht to 16.41 trillion baht, and Dr Thanavath expects it to reach between 16.5 and 16.6 trillion baht by the close of 2026.
Small and medium‑sized enterprises are confronting similar liquidity challenges, grappling with insufficient working capital and a contraction in credit availability that further tightens access to financing.
Key drivers of the debt burden include soaring living costs, a still‑recovering economy, periods of weak agricultural prices and difficulties in securing additional financing, all of which contribute to borrowers falling behind on repayments.
Dr Thanavath suggested that stronger economic growth, rising household and business incomes, and continued debt‑restructuring initiatives could help curb the rise of non‑performing loans and ease the pressure on indebted families.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the outlook will hinge on agricultural price trends, tourism recovery, export performance, investment flows and oil price movements; improvements in these areas could inject much‑needed liquidity into the economy and relieve household stress.