The analysis, released by the Confcommercio Office of Studies, projects that a sustained Brent price of $140 per barrel in 2027 would add 0.7 percentage points to inflation, bringing it to 3.7%, and would cut real household consumption by about €250 per family – a total loss of roughly €6.5 billion.
In the same adverse energy scenario, the study estimates a further half‑point loss in real GDP, leaving annual growth at just 0.6%, essentially a “zero‑point” outlook, while for the third quarter of 2026 it forecasts GDP to slow to a 0.1% quarter‑on‑quarter increase.
Confcommercio president Carlo Sangalli said the deteriorating international situation and the continuous rise in energy costs are putting businesses under serious strain and eroding household confidence, and he warned that the burden must not fall entirely on electricity bills.
Sangalli called for immediate measures such as fiscal incentives for energy‑efficiency upgrades and a further cut to system charges, alongside structural reforms that include accelerating renewable deployment, promoting sustainable nuclear, reducing dependence on gas, expanding storage and grid capacity, and overhauling the electricity price‑formation mechanism.
He also urged the diffusion of aggregated power‑purchase agreements for firms to secure stable, long‑term prices, stressing that without swift action Italy could slip into a new inflationary cycle that would sharply curb consumption and growth.