The analysis, presented by Confcommercio President Carlo Sangalli, outlines a worst‑case energy scenario in which oil prices remain at $140 a barrel through 2027. Under those conditions, inflation would rise by 0.7 percentage points to 3.7%, and families would lose about €250 in real purchasing power – a total loss of roughly €6.5 billion nationwide.
The study also forecasts that Italy’s gross domestic product would lose three‑tenths of a point, leaving annual growth at just 0.6%, while the third quarter of 2026 is expected to see a meagre 0.1% quarterly increase.
Sangalli warned that the worsening international situation and the relentless rise in energy costs are already straining businesses and eroding household confidence. He called for immediate measures to prevent the full burden from falling on electricity bills, including fiscal incentives for energy efficiency and a further reduction of system charges.
Looking ahead, the Confederation urged the government to accelerate the rollout of renewable energy and sustainable nuclear projects, cut dependence on gas, and invest in grid upgrades and storage solutions. It also advocated reforming the mechanism that sets electricity prices and expanding aggregated power‑purchase agreements for firms to secure stable, long‑term rates.
If decisive action is not taken, Sangalli cautioned, Italy could face a new inflationary cycle that would sharply curb consumption and stall economic growth.
The findings come as policymakers grapple with how to balance short‑term relief for consumers with longer‑term structural reforms to secure the country’s energy supply and competitiveness.