Expert RA forecasts around 4 trillion roubles in Russian bank profits for 2026

Russian banks could earn around 4 trillion roubles in profit in 2026, Expert RA forecast in a review published on October 15. The estimate takes account of an expected increase in loan-loss provisioning costs.

The agency said accumulated earning assets and still-high net interest margins would support banks’ interest income. The distribution of profit is shifting, however: the ten largest banks’ share fell from 75% to 72% in the first half.

Expert RA expects the top ten’s share of annual profit could remain below its 2025 level. The agency forecasts a stronger effect from credit-loss expenses at lenders with large corporate portfolios and concentrated exposures to individual borrowers.

Additional losses could emerge as banks assess compliance with revised repayment schedules and companies’ financial prospects. Provisioning needs will depend on the quality of particular exposures, existing coverage and debt-resolution outcomes.

In the second half, the agency also expects the benefits of earlier rapid falls in funding costs to diminish. Slower interest-rate cuts and stronger competition for customer funds could make new funding more expensive than banks anticipated, narrowing their interest margins.