Experts consider the U.S. president's chances of winning remote but expect his public campaign to shape reactions to the committee's choice. Nominees' names remain confidential for 50 years.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the 2026 Peace Prize laureate in Oslo on October 9. Experts quoted by The Straits Times consider Donald Trump's chances of winning remote, despite his public campaign for the award. They expect his statements and actions to affect how the committee's choice is interpreted by the public and the White House.
Haakon Gjerlow, head of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, called Trump “the spectre in the room” and said the committee may be weighing the White House's possible reaction. Committee secretary Kristian Berg Harpviken told AFP that lobbying and pressure attempts are familiar and do not determine the committee's discussions or final decision.
There are 287 nominees for the 2026 prize, including individuals and organizations. Their names are kept confidential for 50 years, so lists of possible winners circulated before the announcement are expert speculation, not confirmed nominations. Commentators have mentioned humanitarian groups, children's-rights advocates and international courts as possible choices.
Names discussed in the source article include Ukrainian children's-rights advocate Mykola Kuleba and Sudan's volunteer Emergency Response Rooms, which help people facing war and hunger. Other possibilities raised by commentators include UN special rapporteur Francesca Albanese, Pope Leo XIV, the Committee to Protect Journalists, the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice. The committee has not confirmed any of them as nominees.
The prize will be announced against a backdrop of worsening global conflict. The Peace Research Institute Oslo recorded 65 armed conflicts involving at least one state actor in 2025, the highest number since 1946. Harpviken said that despite the bleak outlook, people and organizations continue to work for peace. The committee's decision is due Friday.