IMF projects Pakistan growth at 3.5% and inflation at 9.9%

The IMF projects Pakistan’s economy to grow 3.5% in fiscal year 2026-27, with headline inflation at 9.9%, according to the World Economic Outlook reported on Oct. 13.

Dawn and The Express Tribune separately reported the figures. The Tribune said the growth projection was unchanged, while the inflation forecast had risen from the 8.4% estimate maintained in July.

The 3.5% growth forecast is below the government’s 4% target and the World Bank’s 3.8% forecast cited by Dawn. These are projections by different institutions, not recorded growth outcomes.

The IMF also projects a current account deficit of 1% of GDP and unemployment of 6.5%, according to Dawn.

The fund warned that energy-importing economies with limited links to the technology sector face higher import costs, exchange-rate pressure and reduced room for fiscal support.

Its global forecast envisages 3.1% growth in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. The outlook remains exposed to conflict, energy disruption, trade tensions and changes in expectations about artificial intelligence.

Pakistan’s finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, told Reuters the day before that the government expected growth above 4%. The IMF outlook therefore remains more cautious than the government’s stated expectation.