Romania’s central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 6.5%. BCR analysts said the short-term inflation outlook may be revised higher amid expected increases in fuel, energy and other commodity prices.
After Thursday’s meeting, the National Bank of Romania said the short-term inflation path could be revised upward. It plans to release an 12. BCR analysts expect the key rate to remain at 6.5% at least through May 2027, citing persistent core inflation.
The central bank expects annual inflation to rise through the end of 2026, citing anticipated increases in fuel, energy and other goods, including food. It pointed to the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, severe drought and exchange-rate movements as factors. BCR forecasts inflation of 6.4% at year-end but said the risks have shifted higher, with a possible revision to about 6.9%.
Market interest rates rose in September as foreign-exchange interventions absorbed excess liquidity, although overall monetary conditions remained broadly unchanged after the leu weakened, BCR said. The central bank reaffirmed its managed-float exchange-rate regime while allowing greater currency flexibility. BCR economists estimate that exchange-rate movements pass through to inflation by 0.3 percentage points and see limited room for further leu depreciation.
The central bank said recent data point to an economic recovery in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter, supported in part by agriculture. BCR continues to forecast a 0.7% contraction this year and a recovery with 2.2% GDP growth in 2027.