Russian Academy of Sciences academic Nikolai Briko said the risk of future pandemics remains because viruses can change rapidly. He pointed to avian flu as a potential concern if the virus acquired sustained human-to-human transmissibility.
Speaking on RBC Radio’s “Tamantsev: In the End” programme, Briko, head of the epidemiology and evidence-based medicine department at Sechenov University, identified the emergence of a new pathogen capable of spreading between people as one possible threat. “The coronavirus pandemic will not be the last one,” he said, adding that RNA viruses can change especially quickly. “Disease X” is a term for a still-unknown pathogen that could cause a future pandemic.
He cited avian influenza as a potentially dangerous scenario. More than 1,000 human cases have been recorded and the fatality rate exceeds 50%, Briko said. He said the risk of a pandemic would arise if the virus gained the ability to spread from person to person.
Seasonal flu vaccines are formulated using global surveillance of circulating virus variants, the academic said. He described the process as scientific forecasting rather than guesswork. More than 150 centers around the world monitor illness trends, the antigenic composition of circulating viruses and their resistance to medicines, after which specialists analyze the collected information, Briko said.
The emergence of a pathogen for which the population has no collective immunity is a key sign of a new epidemic threat, he said. Risk assessments also consider how quickly an infection spreads, how severe the disease is and whether effective vaccines and medicines are available.