Polls project PP and Vox majority in Spain's November election

Two polls published on October 9 project a combined parliamentary majority for Spain's People's Party and Vox in the November 29 snap election. Voting has yet to take place.

An El País survey gives the two parties a combined 198 seats, above the 176 needed for a majority. They won 170 seats between them in 2023. The same projection would reduce the Socialists' representation from 121 to 112 seats.

The People's Party has 31.9% in the vote estimate, compared with 28.1% for the Socialists. The poll also indicates weaker support for Sumar, the Socialists' governing coalition partner.

An El Confidencial survey projects 200 seats for the People's Party and Vox together. These estimates describe pre-election sentiment, rather than seats already won or an agreement on a future government.

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called the early election after parliament rejected the government's proposals on the housing crisis. Reuters reported that his party hopes protests over housing shortages and rising rents will mobilise left-wing voters.