Tropical Storm Simon in the eastern Pacific is forecast to strengthen before approaching Mexico’s Pacific coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. The threat includes destructive winds, heavy rain, flooding, mudslides and storm surge.
In a forecast issued on October 8, the center said Simon was about 245 miles (395 kilometres) south of Manzanillo, with sustained winds near 65 mph (100 kph). The system was moving west and was expected to turn north.
The center forecast that Simon could become a hurricane later that day and strengthen to Category 4 before reaching land. A hurricane watch was in effect from Manzanillo to Punta Mita. Forecast details can change as new advisories are issued.
Forecasters expected 8 to 15 inches (20 to 38 centimetres) of rain in parts of southwestern Mexico, with isolated totals of up to 25 inches (64 centimetres) in Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. The center warned of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas, as well as dangerous surf and storm surge.
Private forecaster AccuWeather estimated that gusts near landfall could reach 120 to 130 mph (193 to 209 kph) and said storm surge could reach 15 feet (4.6 metres) in the hardest-hit areas. Those estimates are separate from the hurricane center’s official forecast.