Ukraine’s farmers rethink 2027 planting as grain export problems drain cash

Ukrainian farmers are scaling back plans for 2027 as difficulties shipping through the Black Sea leave crops in storage and depress domestic prices. In interviews published by CNBC on October 10, producers and bankers described a shortage of working capital despite strong harvests.

Oleksandr Chumak, who has grown a range of crops in the Odesa region for 11 years, reported strong yields but estimated that around 80% of his grain could not currently be sold profitably. He plans to cut planting significantly, abandon corn and barley and choose crops needing less fertiliser. He said he lacked the cash to continue operating as before.

Ukrainian Agri Council chairman Andrii Dykun said farms were struggling to pay taxes and land rent. Rapeseed and sunflower sales generated income, but not enough. In his assessment, full stores and a lack of profits were undermining the financial rationale for the next planting season.

PrivatBank told CNBC it provided agribusinesses with 1.53 billion hryvnia in working-capital financing from June through August, equivalent to around $34.2 million. That compared with 718 million hryvnia in the same period a year earlier. Small and medium-sized producers account for 70% of its agricultural lending portfolio.

Yevhen Zaihraiev, PrivatBank’s corporate and SME business chief, said funds remained tied up in grain inventories while farms needed to pay operating costs and finance sowing. Some clients were selling at less attractive prices to obtain cash. Others with storage capacity were waiting. The bank was also seeing producers shift next year’s plans toward oilseeds and niche crops.

Expected grain and oilseed production is rising from 80 million to 85 million tonnes, but carry-over stocks add pressure to storage and logistics. Ukraine exported 981,000 tonnes of grain and legumes in August, about 58% below a year earlier. That is consistent with State Customs Service of Ukraine figures published by the Ukrainian Grain Association.

CNBC reported that around 90% of Ukraine’s main agricultural export flows usually pass through the Black Sea. Attacks on ports and ships have complicated insurance for voyages. Ukrainian export problems are accompanied by difficulties with Russian shipments. Before the full-scale war, the two countries together supplied more than half the world’s sunflower oil, almost a fifth of its barley and 14% of its wheat, according to the UN figures cited.

Expana analyst Benoit Fayaud described road, rail and river alternatives as slow and limited in capacity. Transit through Poland and Romania faces concerns about domestic farmers, while low water has impeded Danube shipping. Routes through the Baltic states and Georgia can replace only a small share of normal flows. Dykun said maritime routes remained more economical even for farms near Ukraine’s western border.

Weak corn-harvest prospects in Europe and the United States increase global supply risks, although wheat and barley crops in Canada, Australia and Argentina and harvests in the Middle East and North Africa provide a cushion. Fayaud expects restored Black Sea exports to release large inventories and potentially reduce grain prices from other origins by several dozen dollars. That is a forecast conditional on exports resuming, rather than a price change that has already occurred.