Democrats lead in several forecasts ahead of November's elections. Economic frustration and candidate disputes are helping the opposition, while Republicans retain a strong base and substantial resources.
The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for Nov. 3. Commentators whose analyses were reviewed by Al Jazeera say Republicans risk losing ground in the House and Senate as well as in state legislatures. They link the shift to President Donald Trump's declining popularity, higher prices and the cost of the war with Iran.
Wall Street Journal columnist William Galston argues that Democrats are now more likely to win control of the House. In his assessment, they are four seats short of a 51-49 Senate majority. Galston points to high diesel and fertilizer costs, financial pressure on farmers and more competitive races in agricultural states. His article cites estimates that farm input costs exceeded revenue by more than $36 billion last year and farm bankruptcies rose 46% in 2025.
Texas illustrates how Republican decisions about candidates may affect the race. Galston says Trump's support for Attorney General Ken Paxton against Republican Senator John Cornyn has strengthened Democrat James Talarico. Washington Post analyst Karen Hajar writes that voters are more concerned about prices and living costs than ideological arguments. Republicans, however, retain a substantial financial advantage and Governor Greg Abbott remains a strong contender.
Hajar also describes the Senate contest as competitive. Paxton has relied on outside groups and recently launched a $20 million advertising campaign. A Fox News poll found that 32% of Republicans viewed Paxton negatively, compared with 5% of Democrats who viewed Talarico negatively. Paxton's estranged wife, state Senator Angela Paxton, urged conservatives to vote Republican even if they were unhappy with the candidates.
A separate Washington Post analysis examines state legislative elections. The newspaper says Democrats could gain unified control of as many as six states and majorities in chambers across seven states. Newsweek, citing Cook Political Report, says Democrats could make a net gain of two to six Senate seats. They need four seats to take the majority.
These remain forecasts. The Associated Press has also reported Republican concerns over Trump's unpopularity and the cost of living, while noting that turnout, party resources and individual races will shape the outcome.