Research firm New Constructs argues that an estimated $2 trillion valuation for Anthropic would require extraordinary revenue growth and sustained profitability. In a report published Oct. 6, it called the potential offering the “most ridiculous IPO of 2026.”
The firm’s analysis says Anthropic would need to scale revenue sharply while turning its business into a durable source of profit to justify that valuation. The conclusion is New Constructs’ assessment, not a consensus forecast.
New Constructs said it based its report on information from a leaked draft prospectus. The firm said it had not received Anthropic’s S-1 filing and was working from reported financial figures. Anthropic did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
The figures cited in the report put Anthropic’s 2025 revenue at about $4.6 billion and its net loss at $42 billion. That loss included roughly $34 billion in non-cash accounting charges tied to revaluations of convertible instruments. The operating loss excluding that charge was about $8 billion.
The report also pointed to $518 billion in reported cloud, computing and infrastructure commitments. New Constructs modeled several possible growth and earnings paths. In one scenario, it valued the company at $144 billion if revenue growth fell short of the assumptions underpinning a $2 trillion valuation.
The firm compared the case with its criticism of WeWork’s planned 2019 IPO. Its call on DoorDash in 2020, however, proved wrong: the company’s shares have held up in public markets. The report therefore reflects one research firm’s view and does not determine how investors will value Anthropic.