StoneX expects Chinese purchases of the U.S. crop and biofuel demand to support soybean prices in the fourth quarter, while a larger U.S. harvest could cap further gains.
Chicago soybean futures rose 14.8% over the quarter and came close to a nearly three-year high in September. StoneX said expectations of renewed Chinese buying after a thaw in U.S.-China trade ties helped drive the rally. China had booked as much as 13 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the 2026/27 season by the end of September, about half of Beijing’s stated 25 million-ton commitment, according to the firm. State-owned companies accounted for most purchases, while Chinese crushers’ margins remain under pressure. An additional 10% tariff on U.S. soy also weighs on private buyers, and some purchases could still be canceled.
StoneX forecasts U.S. ending stocks at 8.4 million tons in 2026/27, down 4.6% from the previous season. The U.S. Department of Agriculture, however, expects production to rise 6.4% to 123.4 million tons as acreage expands and yields avoid major setbacks. The larger crop could limit price gains when it reaches the market.
For Brazil, StoneX projects a 183.4 million-ton crop, up 0.4% year over year. It says El Niño adds uncertainty: the pattern tends to bring more rain to the south but raises drought risks farther north. Lower Brazilian exports during the off-season could temporarily open more room for U.S. beans. USDA sees a second straight global deficit, but StoneX says it is not large enough to strain world stocks. South American weather and the pace of Chinese buying are likely to shape prices in the coming months.