Current filling levels in European gas storage facilities do not give the European Union a firm basis for confidence ahead of the heating season, Dmitry Skryabin, a portfolio manager at Alfa Capital, said.
Skryabin said this did not mean a shortage was inevitable at the start of winter, but it shifted more of the risk to the season’s second half. A warm autumn and mild winter could ease pressure, while sustained cold could quickly draw down stored gas and intensify competition for available liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Another factor is how soon LNG supplies from Qatar recover. Skryabin said those deliveries had been significantly restricted by the conflict in the Middle East. The longer the disruption lasts, the greater the strain on European and global LNG markets, he said.
Skryabin also pointed to the European Union’s planned phase-out of Russian LNG from January 1, 2027. In his view, limited supply combined with colder weather and continuing disruptions could send prices sharply higher.
Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, previously linked higher global energy prices to the halt in Russian gas supplies to Europe and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He said the rise in energy costs had led many countries to reconsider their energy policies, strategies and partners.