Forsa poll: 65% expect Merz to leave office before 2029 election

In a Forsa survey for RTL and N-TV, 65% of respondents expected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to leave office before the next Bundestag election. Another 31% expected him to remain until 2029.

The question about his tenure was asked between October 9 and 12 among 1,006 respondents, with a stated margin of error of three percentage points. Results published on October 13 reflect expectations, rather than a decision to remove the chancellor.

In eastern Germany, 72% expected an early departure and 26% expected him to stay until the election. The corresponding western figures were 64% and 32%.

Among CDU/CSU supporters, 48% expected an early exit and 50% a full term. Among Social Democratic Party supporters, the split was 54% to 43%, while Green supporters recorded 47% to 50%.

Among Left party supporters, 59% expected an early departure and 36% continued tenure. Alternative for Germany supporters recorded 87% and 12%. The poll does not establish why groups differ or predict the outcome of any parliamentary procedure.