French poll puts Le Pen and Melenchon in run-off across tested scenarios

Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon would reach the presidential run-off in all five scenarios tested by Toluna Harris Interactive, according to a poll reported by Reuters on October 12.

The survey was conducted from October 5 to 8. Le Pen's first-round support ranged from 35% to 37%, depending on the candidate configuration, compared with 33% to 36% in a similar poll last month.

Melenchon reached the second round in each configuration in the latest survey. In the previous poll, he had placed third in two of the five scenarios.

The poll also indicated that Le Pen would defeat Melenchon in a head-to-head run-off. The Reuters report did not provide the precise second-round percentages, sample size or margin of error.

Both politicians ran for president in 2012, 2017 and 2022. Le Pen reached the second round in the latter two elections and lost to Emmanuel Macron. Melenchon has not previously reached a presidential run-off.

The findings describe voting intentions under specified candidate line-ups. They are not an election result or a guarantee that the same candidates will advance.